Cider Press Hill

Pandemic

I am not a scientist. So, after spending the last couple of days reading up on the H5N1 avian influenza, which, according to a variety of sources, is in its 3rd phase of pandemic development (the last phase before human-to-human transmission begins), I still don’t quite know what’s true and what’s not. What I do know is that what I’ve read has scared me.

Why has so little has been said in the media? I know it’s irresponsible to scare the bejesus out of the citizenry with a lot of unknowns (not that it stopped anyone during the duct tape and plastic sheeting hysteria...), but it seems as if more public attention should be paid to the probability of a new flu pandemic. The truly virulent pandemics seem to happen about once every 100 years. According to a couple of sources, we may see an avian flu pandemic begin somewhere by spring 2006. If it’s as bad or worse than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, we’re going to be in a world of hurt. There isn’t enough flu vaccine nor is there enough anti-viral medication to treat even half the population. Not even close.

So...how bad will it be? I guess no one really knows yet. One of the things that really scares me about a pandemic is that it is particularly devastating to younger, healthy people—say from ages 18-40. Is this something world leaders have pretty much ignored? The appalling shortage of anti-viral drugs and vaccine seems to say so.

Some sources:
The Next Pandemic?
New England Journal of Medicine: Preparing for the Next Pandemic
Point of Contact: Dr. Henry Niman
International Society for Infectious Diseases
The Coming Influenza Pandemic
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Flu Source Page
World Health Organization: Assessing the pandemic threat
Flu pandemic could trigger second Great Depression, brokerage warns clients
Flu Wiki

Posted on 08/19/05 at 06:05 PM
 




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